Bowl Projections: Utah Enters CFP, Alabama Rises to No. 2

Updated bowl projections have produced two major developments in the College Football Playoff picture: Utah has entered the projected 12-team field as the new Big 12 favorite, while Alabama has moved to the projected No. 2 seed.

Neither position is official. The projections reflect current forecasts based on projected conference standings, résumé strength, remaining schedules and expected results before conference championship games.

CBS Sports’ updated projection places Utah in the CFP field and identifies the Utes as the leading Big 12 contender. The same projection moves Alabama to No. 2. ESPN, On3 and NCAA.com have also published updated coverage of the projected playoff and bowl landscape following Week 12 of the 2025 season, although the available summaries do not list every projected team, seed or matchup.

Utah Moves Into the Projected CFP Field

Utah’s inclusion is significant because the Utes are also viewed as the new favorite to win the Big 12. A conference title would strengthen Utah’s résumé, provide a major late-season opportunity and improve its case against teams competing for at-large playoff positions.

Utah has not officially secured the Big 12 championship, a CFP berth, a specific seed or a first-round bye. Those decisions depend on completed games and the final selection process.

The projection shows that Utah is currently expected to reach the expanded playoff. That position could change if the Utes lose, fail to reach the conference championship game or finish with a résumé that compares poorly with other contenders.

Why Utah’s Big 12 Status Matters

Winning the Big 12 would strengthen Utah’s postseason case by:

• Adding a conference championship to its résumé.
• Providing a significant late-season result.
• Separating Utah from other Big 12 contenders.
• Improving its position in the final committee evaluation.
• Potentially improving its playoff seed.

A conference title would not guarantee a specific seed, and being the projected conference favorite does not automatically guarantee a playoff berth. The committee must compare Utah with contenders from other conferences and teams seeking at-large positions.

Utah must still remain competitive in the conference race, avoid a damaging loss and perform well if it reaches the championship game. A loss would not necessarily eliminate the Utes, but it could reduce their margin for error and allow another Big 12 team to move ahead.

Alabama Rises to the Projected No. 2 Seed

Alabama’s move to the projected No. 2 seed is the other major change in the latest forecast. A position that high would place the Crimson Tide near the top of the 12-team CFP bracket and provide a favorable route through the postseason.

Under the expanded playoff format, the top four seeds receive first-round byes. That makes the difference between a top-four position and a lower seed significant. A higher seed can provide additional preparation time and a potentially more favorable quarterfinal path.

Alabama has not officially earned the No. 2 seed. The projection reflects its current position in a forecast rather than a final CFP committee ranking. Remaining games, other elite teams’ results and conference championship outcomes can all change the order.

Alabama’s clearest path to holding the position is continued winning, particularly against strong opponents. A late loss could cost the Crimson Tide the No. 2 seed or a first-round bye. Another contender’s strong finish could also push Alabama down the bracket.

Projections Remain Fluid Before Championship Weekend

CFP projections change because the field is determined by a full season rather than a single snapshot. Upsets, rivalry results, conference championship games and strength-of-schedule comparisons can reshape the field quickly.

ESPN has published an updated CFP and bowl projection following Week 12 of the 2025 season, but the available summary does not identify its complete projected field or matchups. On3 has reported an ESPN-projected 12-team bracket and bowl lineup, while NCAA.com has previewed a projected CFP top 25 and possible bracket before conference championship games.

These reports provide comparative context, but they remain forecasts. Terms such as “projected,” “forecast” and “current bowl projection” are more accurate than “selected” or “confirmed.”

Projected Seeds Versus Official CFP Rankings

Media bowl projections, predictive models and official CFP rankings are separate. A media projection estimates the teams and seeds likely to appear in the final field. A model may use current records, projected results and expected conference outcomes. The selection committee produces official rankings based on its own evaluation.

Utah’s projected inclusion means the team is viewed as one of the 12 most likely playoff participants. It does not guarantee that Utah will remain in the field after all games are played. Alabama’s projected No. 2 position similarly describes its current outlook, not its final destination.

Conference championship games can affect:

• Automatic qualifiers.
• At-large selections.
• Seed order.
• First-round byes.
• Quarterfinal matchups.
• Bowl destinations.

A major upset could move one team into the playoff while pushing another out. It could also change which teams receive byes and which must play in the first round.

The Broader Bowl Landscape

Changes at the top of the playoff bracket affect the entire bowl projection landscape. When one team moves into the CFP, other teams may shift down the projected bowl order. Conference allocations and at-large opportunities can also change.

Utah’s projected entry could influence the placement of other Big 12 teams and the bowl destinations of teams competing for postseason opportunities. A single late-season result can alter CFP qualification, conference championship outcomes, New Year’s Six positioning and at-large bowl availability.

Key Questions Before the Final Bracket

Can Utah Turn Big 12 Favorite Status Into a CFP Berth?

Utah must finish the conference race strongly and build a completed résumé that supports playoff selection. Winning the Big 12 would provide the clearest confirmation of its projected status, but the final decision will depend on the complete national field.

Can Alabama Stay at No. 2?

Alabama’s position depends on continued success and the performance of other contenders. A top-two seed is not guaranteed, even if the Crimson Tide remains in the playoff. The order can change after late-season games and conference championships.

Will the Big 12 Receive Multiple Bids?

Utah’s rise raises questions about the Big 12’s overall playoff representation. The available information confirms Utah’s projected position but does not establish whether another Big 12 team would join the field. That outcome will depend on the conference’s final standings, résumé comparisons and the strength of contenders elsewhere.

Conclusion

The latest bowl projections identify Utah as the new Big 12 favorite and place the Utes inside the projected College Football Playoff field. They also move Alabama to the projected No. 2 seed, putting the Crimson Tide near the top of the 12-team bracket.

Utah has gained a stronger national profile but must complete the Big 12 race and protect its résumé. Alabama has a projected path to one of the bracket’s most favorable positions, but its seed remains vulnerable to late-season results and competing teams’ performances.

Until the regular season, conference championships and CFP selection process are complete, the current bracket remains a forecast rather than an official postseason field.

FAQ

Is Utah officially in the College Football Playoff?

No. Utah is included in current bowl projections, but projected selections are not official. The final CFP field will be determined after the regular season, conference championship games and committee rankings.

Why is Utah the new Big 12 favorite?

The updated projection identifies Utah as the leading Big 12 contender based on its current conference position and projected résumé. The Utes must still complete the season and potentially win the Big 12 championship.

What does Alabama’s projected No. 2 seed mean?

It places Alabama near the top of the 12-team CFP bracket. If the position holds, Alabama would have a favorable playoff path and could receive a first-round bye under the expanded format.

Can Alabama lose the No. 2 seed?

Yes. Its projected seed can change because of its remaining results, other contenders’ performances, conference championship outcomes and the CFP committee’s final evaluations.

When will the CFP bracket become official?

The bracket becomes official when the CFP selection committee announces the final rankings and playoff field after the regular season and conference championship games.

How reliable are bowl projections?

Bowl projections provide an informed snapshot based on current results, schedules, rankings and expected outcomes. They help track playoff trends but can change after one loss, an upset or a conference championship result.